The mobile Web will overtake the desktop Web within the next five years, according Mary Meeker, head of global technology research at Morgan Stanley and an analyst who is regarded as the number one Wall Street expert covering internet companies.
The five key trends which will fuel this explosive growth are:
- 3G mobile networks
- social networking
- Internet video
- top-of-the-range mobile devices
"Mobile's breakneck pace is unprecedented in world history," she said.
She also suggests looking to Japan for trends in investment opportunities, where 66 percent of mobile Web revenue is from data access, 21 percent is from e-commerce, 11 percent is generated by paid services and only 2 percent comes from mobile advertising.
There are more key points:
- The iPad is one of the fastest-selling gadgets of all time (1 million in 28 days)
- iPad Internet usage is more similar to desktop usage than smartphone usage
- Android smartphone shipments almost equal iPhone shipments
- Global 3G wireless penetration just hit 20 percent, which is usually the inflection point to very rapid growth
- Mobile app and search usage is up 2X year over year
- Japan shows the potential for mobile advertising: Japan mobile ad spending now $11/user, up from $1 per user six years ago
- Japan shows potential for mobile commerce: 19 percent of Rakutan's sales now from mobile
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